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 In the first quarter, the demand for stainless steel was weak, the supply was tight, and it was also affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the nickel scandal. The price of stainless steel futures fluctuated violently, with a large amplitude, and the bottom rose somewhat.

  On the demand side, the real estate data has declined, the demand for home appliances is poor, and the actual demand has not been effectively released. On the supply side, the reduction of production in the Winter Olympics and the two sessions led to the tightening of the supply side. However, after the year, steel mills resumed work quickly, and the total output of domestic stainless steel crude steel gradually recovered.

At the end, the supply of raw materials, nickel, chromium and other resources is tight, and the production cost of stainless steel keeps rising, which constitutes a strong support for the price. In addition, the epidemic situation in many places across the country has repeatedly adversely affected the upstream and downstream of the stainless steel industry chain.

  On the whole, it is expected that the output of stainless steel will continue to rise in the second quarter, and the supply will be slightly loose; With the end of the rainy season in the Philippines and the recovery of shipments in South Africa, the shortage of raw materials supply will be eased, but the support from the cost side is still strong; The improvement of macroeconomic data is conducive to boosting the demand for stainless steel; The running rhythm of stainless steel futures will still be affected by nickel price, and the upward drive is insufficient. Focus on the change of cost end and the recovery of terminal demand. The expected price running range is 15,500-20,500 yuan/ton.

Founder futures:

  The price of nickel fluctuates. After the price of nickel pig iron is raised, there is still a big price difference with electrolytic nickel, which is relatively stable, and the cost of stainless steel moves up.

  Spot fluctuation still needs to be repaired, and logistics disturbs both supply and demand. With the increase of overseas stainless steel prices, India has turned to producing more products with low nickel consumption, and the negative feedback of high prices on demand is also happening.

  The domestic supply of stainless steel is expected to increase in March, and some raw materials may be affected due to transportation, which may lead to the reduction of stainless steel production. The continuous situation of subsequent demand still needs attention. At present, the inventory pressure is limited, but the transaction is still sluggish. With the slowdown and rebound of nickel price, stainless steel still fluctuates repeatedly between 20,000-22,000 yuan, and the band idea is the main idea. Basis trend is low and repeated.